it's basically an admission you probably haven't been paying out enough on a regular dividend all along. a lot of these family control companies like to stockpile the cash. now they're going to harvest it in a certain way. i think costco is interesting. take on debt. make the balance sheet a little leaner. if that's an ongoing thing, it's good. if it's just going to be a matter of hoarding cash next year for a shareholder it doesn't really help you. >> costco changed the picture. good to see you. back to headquarters. scott wapner and the "fast money halftime." all right, carl. thanks very much. welcome to "the halftime report." four hours to go until the close. here's where we stand on the street. a picture that looks a bit different than it did some 15 to 20 minutes to go. all three of the major averages were solidly in the green. more talk out of washington. we went negative on the dow. there's a look at the dow basically flat now. back below 13,000. the s&p is holding on to that 1400 level. the nasdaq holding on to 3,000

as well. here's what we're following on halftime today. a growing number of corporate executives trading their own company's stock on information you can't get. the alarming details are just ahead. rim shares surge yet again. this time on a goldman upgrade. can a stock that's outperformed apple lately continue its climb? brown and murphy battle it out. first, our top story. rise above. negative comments from speaker boehner pressuring the market right now. let's take a listen to what the house speaker had to say. >> despite claims that the president supports a balanced approach, the democrats have yet to get serious about real spending cuts. and, secondly, no substantive progress has been made in the talks between the white house and the house over the last two weeks. >> all right.

so you see what happened to the dow jones industrial average. went negative. now it's basically sitting at the flat line. those comments from speaker boehner coming after a meeting with treasury secretary tim geithner and the senate majority leader, harry reid. in fact, harry reid is going to make some comments in a matter of moments which you will see live and will no doubt move the markets one way or the other. let's get straight to the trading action today. in front of me mike murphy, john najarian, joe terranova, josh brown. more of the same, doc. markets up on what seems to be a pretty good day. >> the more they zip it, the more we go up. as soon as they talk, we go down. it's not democrat or republican. doesn't matter if it's harry reid or if it's boehner. when they came out -- or when boehner came out and we're about to get reid as well. when boehner came out and said it's not balanced, we don't have cuts on the table, the white house is not trying, i said yesterday that this increases the gamma, the rate of change of delta. that's what gamma is. it goes up. we're seeing larger and larger

risk built into this based on how long these negotiations take. if they drag it out and they don't get substantive issues on the table like cuts as well as taxes, then we're going to be closer to the cliff. that's why all these special dividends. that's why costco borrowed $3 billion to pay that $7 special, judge. that's not a good sign. >> josh, yesterday the dow was up 100 then down 100 -- or down 100 then up 100, whatever you want to say, for the first time in a year, since october 2011. >> i have friends in the swing trade community. i got to tell you i have not heard this much negativity from these guys. these are guys that will typically put on a position for one to five days. they say this atmosphere right now is really difficult because it's almost a coin toss what's going to happen from one hour to the next when we're back in this headline mode. that's exactly where we are. i think if you're an investor here and you're looking to capture some of these whip saw moves, really have to know what you're doing. if not stick with what you like and stay liquid which has been

the approach we've taken. >> joe, amazing volatility in the market. 200 point swing for the dow yesterday. almost an 80 point swing already this morn ing. it's just the lunch hour. >> yet when you look at the s&p it continues overall on a two-week basis to point higher. you're going to get a lot of fits and starts. you're going to get a lot of negative commentary. that's part of the process. point back, 2010. the 2001-2000 bush era tax cuts, they got extended on december 17th of 2010. last year the payroll tax cut, that got extended, scott, on december 23rd. this is going to go right down to december 21st in avoiding the fiscal cliff. don't think anything differently. >> today one of the streets most bullish market watchers is is making a pretty bold prediction saying the s&p 500 is going to rally 17% by the end of next year. tony dwire joins us now. good to have you. >> thanks. >> i'm wondering how you're dealing with your predictions and your forecasting on the

markets when you have such gyrations due to what's going on with the fiscal cliff. >> well, truthfully, you know, hopefully what makes me a little bit different on the street, i really try not to guess. what they're going to say, it's impossible. what i fall back to is what's the tactical outlook? we had a nice 5% move off of that low. our view is you've always retested that kind of intermediate term low. we're looking for a little pullback. ultima ultimately, don't fight the fed and don't fight the tape. when i talk to people, you kind of think about it. why isn't it follow the fed or follow the tape? because every cycle we think the fed is not going to do enough to produce and demand through mod tear accommodation. each cycle they find either lower level of rates or unique ways to do it. i'm just simply not fighting the fed. >> tony, you're at 1412 on the s&p right now. your target for 2012 is 1575. how in the world are we going to get there from here in four weeks? >> that might be a little bit

tough at this point. i still think we're going to close above 1500. frankly, the 1650 for 2013 i think is conservative. it's also front end loaded. i'm a little bit different than folks on the street. i think you're going to get better activity as we move forward into 2013. as we were in 2012, we had a sharp slowdown in china coming. we had a severe recession in southern europe developing. we had another european debt crisis in the middle of the summer. plus we had the election and fiscal cliff oncoming. with that, we still got over 2% growth. so even with some kind of drag from higher taxes and spending into next year, without a lot of those -- those severe head winds, you know, i just don't see how with a global -- coordinated global monetary easing policy from the central banks, how you're going to have a worser economy next year and therefore lower profits. >> joe? or josh? >> hi, tony. josh brown. i'm just curious, if you took a look at that gdp third quarter revision from this morning, one of the things i think jumped out most is that really all of the

improvement comes as a result of both federal spending and then the other thing -- then the other thing that people don't want to see which is a lot of inventory restocking which i understand is seasonal. but now that's on the backs of the consumers, actually, taking those products out of stores to their homes. are we really going to be able to say that that was a good upward revision? even though the number went up? >> no. frankly, the market would have already priced that in after they released the number. we're in what we're calling a fundamental sweet spot. the last thing investors should want are great economic data series. very low unemployment. because with that comes tighter monetary policy. historically the market moves up when there's money availability which drives positive economic activity. what we mean by the fundamental sweet spot, josh, we mean that consumer confidence, housing, employment, it's all trending better from still historically weak levels. but not to the point -- >> tony, i'm going to have to interrupt you. we want to go down to washington.

harry reid, senate majority leader along with other democratic leaders are speaking now. >> we're ready to protect middle-class families from the fiscal cliff that they're facing by freezing the tax rates for the first $250,000 of all americans' income. letting the rates go up to the same level they were during the clinton administration. republicans know where we stand. we've said it. we've said it. we've said it so many times. the president said the same thing. it's been weeks, at least two weeks, since we met at the white house. we're still waiting for a serious offer from the republicans. really, now is the time for the republicans to move past this happy talk about revenues, ill-defined, of course, and put specifics on the table. the president has made his proposal. we need a proposal from them. i'm glad to see there are some reasonable republicans breaking from the pack.

veteran representative cole and a new member, scott from south carolina, have said basically the same thing. and that is, they should bring to the floor of the house the bill that's passed over here. it would pass overwhelmingly, as scott said in the press today. our bill would pass in a matter of minutes if the house republicans simply allowed a vote. we're not going to kick the can down the road. we're going to finalize this this year. this is no time for delay. the american people want us to avoid the fiscal cliff with a balanced approach. and they want us to do it right now. the average middle-class family is staring at a tax increase of $2,200 come january 1st. we're simply not going to let that happen. if it happens, it'll be under the leadership of the speaker of the house of representatives, john boehner.

we'll protect the middle class and we know that we'll have -- there'll be pain on both sides. we know that. but to forge a balanced agreement, we need the republicans to come forward with something. it's time to listen to the american people. and that is really a valid statement. the vast majority of independents support what the president has sent to the republicans in the house. the vast majority of democrats support it. more than 40% of the republicans support this proposal. the republicans need to show us that they can help lead this country. senator durbin? >> thank you, senator reid. we can debate at length whether the november 6th election was -- >> comments from the senate majority leader, harry reid. essentially saying the exact same thing that speaker boehner did except mr. reid chiding republicans, if you will, saying we're still waiting on a serious offer from the republicans. just a few moments ago, as you

did hear live on cnbc, it was speaker boehner saying democrats have yet to get serious. you can continue to watch the comments from senator durbin, senators schumer and murray are also there as well, likely to speak. you can continue to see that as you see at the bottom of your screen on cnbc.com. let's head down to capitol hill and our own eamon javers. i know you keep saying this is a negotiating tactic being used by both sides. it seems as though the markets and the investing public are the ones being held hostage. >> reporter: absolutely. they must feel that way up there on wall street. i can tell you in washington terms, this is a little bit of educated speculation trying to figure out what actually happened here today. it seems like what happened is that tim geithner came up here with some kind of offer, presumably some proffer from the administration for the republican side. and the republicans didn't like it. so they're rejecting now the second or third offer here from the administration. and you see boehner coming out -- boehner, by the way, just walked past us and gave us a big smile just a few seconds before we came on the air. he's clearly not all that upset.

he seems like he's in a pretty good mood here today. so boehner is saying no. i don't like that offer. now harry reid is coming out and say wk hey, wait a second. it's time for you guys to get serious. when harry reid says it's time to listen to the american people, what he's saying is, look at the poll numbers. this thing polls much better for us than it polls for you. you're getting clobbered here, republicans. pay attention. so that's the message that's going on. you're seeing a lot of horse trading. yeah, if you're a player in the market right now, it's got to feel like you're being held hostage to this horse trading in washington. that's the way they've done it here for a couple hundred years in this town. i think that's the way they'll continue doing it up to the edge of the deadline on the fiscal cliff. >> you get any sense as you talk to the folks making these comments that they even care what the stock market does as they're speaking? >> reporter: yes. they do care. they're very aware it's tanking on various words that they're speaking as they're at the podium. but you've got to remember it's -- people on wall street think that a crash on wall

street, a couple hundred points down in the dow, is a horrific, horrible thing. people in washington sometimes, some people, view it as a tactical tool that they can use to bludgeon the other side into getting what they want. a fall in the dow is not necessarily a bad thing from some perspectives here in washington, scott. >> eamon, thanks so much. eamon javers on capitol hill. see the dow jones industrial -- in fact, all three of the major averages moved back into positive territory. i don't know if this is because reid also said, look, we're not going to kick the can down the road. maybe the market's taking that as a positive, joe. >> listen, i'm sorry. but i think we're making way too much out of this. i think the market is far smarter than we're giving it credit to. 1343 was where we were on november 16th. on election night we were 1428 in the s&p. 1419 today. >> the market's moving on every word that comes out of capitol hill. >> the market is near the highest level it's been. >> i understand. it was down 100 points yesterday on comments. then it was back up 100. >> the market has got nothing but negative news over the last

24 hours. you are absolutely correct. it has recovered. the market is smarter. it is reading through all the posturing, all the noise and recognizing that we will get a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff and there is fundamental sound footing in both the economy and the market that people want to be invested. i'm just looking at where the market is relative to its lowest point on november 16th to where it was on november 6th to where it is now. >> look, the dow is back above 13,000. it's clearly resilient. the market's been able to rise above even as some of the folks down in dc have not been able to. senator schumer is making apparently some more positive comments now. so the dow is moving up by 25 points or so. you cannot escape the fact, murph, every time somebody speaks in dc the market moves and we're sitting here or the folks at home who are watching now trying to make trades or investing in the market for the long term are trying to figure out what the heck to do because they can't figure out the market based on what one of these guys or gals is saying on the hill. >> or someone running a hedge fund that has to report results to their investors after

tomorrow. so it's really tough in the short term to trade this market. i'm going to agree with joe on this, scott, in that you look -- if you knew yesterday after we rallied 200 points off the low, if you knew what boehner was going to come out and say today and what reid was going to come out and say today, we're giving up that 200 points. we haven't. we took the punch in stride. markets have rallied. >> one step further, then a break. josh, what i'm hearing here is that forget the cliff. okay? the market's going to gyrate based on where it's going to gyrate? if you have a list of stocks you like, want to buy, buy the darn stock. >> that's the only way to do it. there are other positives. small caps priced in large caps have bottom, now moving up. there are other good things. a diminishing impact, these headlines. >> a couple weeks ago that whole thing with apple. i haven't sold one share of apple since then. >> we are going to continue to monitor all of the develops out

of the nation's capital. ahead on "halftime," are more executives trading their stock by using information unavailable to the public? we search for answers. shares of blackberry maker research in motion going green today after getting a key upgrade from goldman sachs. green is an understatement as you see that 7% move. we debate what you should do with that one. first, from holiday cheers to "little shop of horrors." grim reality. new chain store numbers. back after this.

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♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] while you're getting ready for the holidays, we're getting ready for you. tis the season. for food, for family, and now, something extra -- for you. welcome back to "fast money halftime report." kate kelly with breaking news. we just learned s.a.c. capital will be holding another staff telephone call this afternoon after the close of markets to discuss the issues currently surrounding the hedge fund. this will be the second call for the firm's internal staff in about two weeks. no doubt the issues that will

arise continue to be steve cohen, his involvement in an ongoing insider trading investigation that the government has lost. cohen has not been charged personally. there's no indication those plans are coming down the road. he was not part of the wells notice the firm received last week, reportedly. nonetheless, questions surround about his involvement as well as his plans to potentially retire sometime soon reported in the "wall street journal" this morning. an s.a.c. spokesperson tells me the notion that cohen is soon to retire is utterly false. nonetheless, from what i'm hearing there's a lot of question from within the firm about cohen's situation and what the legal issues are as they continue to unfold, scott. we'll bring you more details of that as we learn them, again, after the close of trading today. >> quickly, what happens if steve cohen no longer is running s.a.c.? >> scott, it's hard to fathom the firm going on without his vo involvement. not only is the fast majority of their capital under management either steve cohen's or other insiders, but most of it is cohen himself. he keeps a very tight reign on

the trading. he has a steve cam. a camera that films what he's doing so traders can see when to make a trade, what's going on. one indication of his close personal involvement. >> interesting stuff. thank you so much. looking at the markets here again, we're in the green here. a couple quick comments from senator schumer. he did say there is progress being made behind the scenes. waiting for specifics from the gop. but he is confident. this is senator schumer. that a deal to avert the fiscal cliff can, in fact, be reached by christmas. there's a look at the markets right now. perhaps that's what brought the dow back into positive territory. now sits with a gain of 20 points. s&p 500 up one-third of 1%. market's recovering at least part of what they lost during those comments earlier from house speaker john boehner. let's do a market flash now with mary thompson. retail big story today, mar. >> big story. we're watching some of those retail names go down today, scott. a number of retailers actually came in weaker than expected.

same-store sales for the month of november including target, macy's and kohl's. all reporting a decline in same-store sales as analysts had been expecting an increase. target, a little more cautious on its comments. macy's saying despite a decline in same-store sales it still expects same-store sales for the fourth quarter to be in excess of 4%. kohl's also sticking with its profit outlook for the quarter as well. expecting that a strong start to the holiday shopping season will bode well for the company in the coming quarter. today, all of them not boding so well. especially kohl's, down over 9%. back to you. >> thanks so much. mary thompson. what does this tough day for retailers mean for the holidays? portfolio manager at durvin capital joins us live. nice to see you. are you resetting your holiday expectations based on these numbers? >> i think the holiday expectations really have to be toned down a little bit. i think the critical part is

that november was hurt. november was ugly for a lot of the department stores, big because retailers. women's retailers like cicco's, american eagle did great. if your kohl's, they need a 9%, 10% comp in december to be able to make their quarter. which is a real steep hill to climb. >> doesn't sound realistic, right? >> yeah. it seems really aggressive. you should get about a 253 basis point benefit in december just due to the calendar benefit p you have an extra two days, extra weekend. still, it's a real tough, tough slide. >> where would be the best place, then, to put money? which retailer stands out best in class to you? >> we think the best in class is a retailer such as chicco's and the women's apparel retailer american eagle and the teen retailer. they both had super -- very strong sales. inventories are very tight. i think you'll get a benefit there. additionally i like tjx in terms of off price retailers.

they're getting a lot of -- a lot of benefit from all the debacle that penney's is going under. >> was the disappointment we got in chain store sales, how much would you point that to hurricane sandy? >> i think hurricane sandy had an impact in the first week, ten days in the northeast. when you speak to kohl's they were weak across the country. you could say it's part of the election results. i think there are just issues that are there. i think it was just disappointing. fw again, it's a long holiday season. the hope is, and hope and prayer is you're going to have a better december. i think some of them will. what you want to look at, even though the department stores were all negative today, a lot of the apparel retailers were positive. 5%, 10%. that's a positive sign. >> quick comment on tiffany. huge miss. stock's a mess. is this company specific or is it luxury that we need to watch out for? >> i think it's, "a," it's company specific.

i think it's luxury you want to watch. if any consumer is watching this fiscal cliff, it's really the luxury customers. it's not the american eagle customers. the american eagle customers think fiscal cliff is really a rock climbing event. >> steve, good to have you on the show as always. >> thanks a lot. >> murph, what do you do with retail? >> we added to our position in target. also look at macy's. we know they were affected heavily by hurricane sandy. >> you're undeterred by the miss in comps? you look at it as a buying opportunity? >> i look at target and macy's, companies putting up great numbers in the past, i'm going to give them the one pass this time to say it was attributable to hurricane sandy. so i think you buy them on a dip and you look for them to take out new highs. >> sound good to you, joe? >> yeah, well, i wasn't smart enough to make this trade. but it seems to me that amazon and ebay are insulated to the problems that affected sandy. just look at the price performance. again, i missed the trade. when you're looking pure retail

itself, i own have the position in tjx. we talked about that the other day. limited brands, victoria's secret continues to work. >> i like the tjx part of your trade. stephanie link i know is on that as well. i thought you might get a chance to pick it up at 42. you haven't really in the last little bit. it's popped back up to 44. right up against some minor resistance there, judge. i like picking this up on any dips toward 42. >> $2 differ reence isn't going make a big difference. >> mid-january to the end of january stock will be close to 50. >> i hear you. still to come, goldman sachs upgrading blackberry maker research in motion to a buy. what goldman sees that others don't. we head to the pits to find out what's causing crude oil to bubble higher today when "halftime" comes back. twins. i didn't see them coming.

i have obligations. cute obligations, but obligations.

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♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] 'tis the season to discover the kid in all of us. the memories that last, start with the gifts that last. ♪ enjoy free shipping and great values on your holiday shopping from l.l.bean. bottom line is i do like the stock. they still have 80 million users worldwide. not like they're not selling any phones. they still sold about 7 million phones. i like the new ceo. he's doing the right things.

i think there's good value here. >> i don't like the fundamental story. >> you don't like the ceo. >> the recipe for disaster is in place. sooner or later if you buy the stock and trade around the long position, there are potential risks to the downside is unlimited. >> research in motion. it is the stock that everybody seems to have an opinion on. rim hitting a six month high today after goldman upgraded shares to buy from neutral. let's go deeper on it. one stock, two opinions. mike murphy, josh brown, toe to toe. mike, like it or not. >> don't like it at all. stocks rallied 60% off its lows. i don't see any reason to jump in on this name when eight weeks into it it's rallied over 60%. nothing's changed on the company. i don't think anyone here on this desk, you or a lot of people out there, are going to run out and buy a blackberry 10. i think they've missed the boat. the stock's come too far, too fast. 1250 was the 50% retracement from low to high. 1 12.30 was the top.

goldman upgraded too late. >> has sentiment changed? >> sentiment has changed. the sentiment has changed because there were a few analysts who were willing to step out there and say, look, it's not a high probability, but there is probability that, "a," blackberry 10 is a winner and the street is too negative prior to blackberry 10 means we've got the ongoing business that's not being accounted for the way it should. >> tell murph why you would buy the stock? >> if it's up 60% the last two months, it's down 90% the last two years. let's not talk about where it's been. let's talk about where it's going. it's the hot momentum trade. every two or three days we see a major sell side firm come out and say something positive. >> are you buying a blackberry 10? >> am i buying a blackberry 10? >> when they come out. >> no. but i'll tell you who might. you don't have to agree. i'm not saying this is an apple. here's who will. indonesia. thailand, africa. this company has a user base that's not willing to buy a $600

phone from apple today, tomorrow or the next day. that's what goldman's saying. they're not saying they're about to take over android and ios. all they're saying is, look, the street got way too negative. quite frankly this is still a business that's operating. i don't know that you'd want to be short a name like this where you're starting to see institutional support for the first time in, what, 36 months? >> i think goldman put the probability of the blackberry 10 being a winner. >> to ard th third. a one in three chance. that's their bull case. their base case is the company should exceed estimates for each of the next four quarters. i don't think the street is there yet. that's all goldman's saying. you've got to be really, really tight with your stops if you're going to play this. as mike says, this is not fundamentally a great story. however, sometimes institutional sponsorship matters more. >> you want to take it for a quick trade, yes, try to play the momentum. long term from a fundamental story, if you wanted to invest money in the company, i wouldn't do it. >> it's a good day for oil. crude jumping nearly 2% at one

point in today's session. holding its gains after mr. boehner's comments. jackie deangelis is the host of cnbc's "futures now." she's been monitoring how traders in the pits are playing oil today. >> good afternoon, scott. while crude may be rallying today, it's had a pretty tough week so far ending lower in the past three sessions. the question now, can we expect the strength that we're seeing today to continue in the face of a volatile market? let's start talking futures now. anthony, let's start with you. how captive will crude be to the rhetoric coming out of washington? >> jackie, it looks like it's ignoring the rhetoric coming out of washington. there's a lot of drawing of lines in the sand going on right now. the big mover of crude today was that gdp revision number. once they revised that up, crude oil really shot up almost a dollar at that point when that number came out. then there was another global survey of investors where their confidence actually in the last two months has increased substantially. they feel that the economies around the world are getting

better. >> rich, out to you. in terms of the charts what levels are you watching on crude right now and where do you think crude is going? >> he's a buyer of the dips and i'm a seller of the rip. a four-week high right now at 89.80. i'm a seller of crude against that level. a big pop above us maybe get us to the 200 day moving average of 95. griz will tell you, everyone will tell you, we're in a great trading range. 84.50 on the downside is a buy till it breaks. we're selling the 90s. playing that six dollar range. if you're playing the range here in crude, don't use etfs or stocks. this is a future play. you're in and out. outside of that we need more headway from the s&p 0 give us a direction in the crude oil. >> all right. a buyer and a seller. that's what makes markets. now you know what our guys think about crude. question is, what about you? what level do you think is more likely for crude by the end of the year? $80 or $100? logon to futuresnow.cnbc.com. vote in our poll. we're going to give you those results on our live streaming

show. be sure to tune in today. "futures now" begins at 1:00 p.m. eastern on the website futuresnow.cnbc.com. a top ranked gold analyst. he's ready to make a very bold call. over to you. >> we'll look forward to that call at the top of the hour on cnbc.com. when "halftime" returns, executive insider trading. cnbc's herb greenberg tackles one of corporate america's longest running dirty little secrets. we're back after this. we're halfway through the trading day. next, we cover the day's dead cat bounces. the island reversals. the breakouts and breakdowns. in "pops & drops." plus, they say the dumb money trades in the morning. and the smart money trades into the close. so we reveal what that smart money is buying and trading before that final bell tolls. when the "halftime report" continues. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade.

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get rid of prepaid problems. get chase liquid. sfwlnchts welcome back. time for an all time high edition of top three trades. expedia is pulling back just a bit after hitting a record high today, murph. >> doc -- excuse me. judge. expedia up over 100% year to

date. you look at where the stock is right now. getting above its trend lines a little too much. rbc out with a note this morning saying they see this as a company that could increase their stock buyback in the coming few months. i think that's why the stock's starting to rally here. i think it looks extended here from those levels. >> visa and mastercard. josh, the stocks both getting a nice bump today. all-time highs. >> people spend so much time trying to figure out which retailer is benefiting the most from black friday, digital saturday, whatever the buzz words are. at the end of the day it's visa and it's mastercard. they've been in a secular bull market throughout the entire crisis period. quite frankly with all of the buying migrating to mobile, whether it's great christmas spending or not, there's a chunk of spending that continues to grow that's being done with debit cards, credit cards, online purchasing. that's obviously not going to change this year just like it hasn't any of the previous christmases. >> joey t., look at yum brands up today. a good year as well. up 26% year to date. >> it is finally returned to the

levels it was at on may 1st when it slipped from 74 and change. that was on the back of what we were seeing in china. what has happened domestically, it is all about pizza. it is all about tacos. 19.99 dinner box working well at pizza hut. taco bell is gaining market share from chipotle and qudoba. herb greenberg is here with a story that's getting a lot of buzz today. herb, it's stirring a lot of outrage today. what are we talking about? >> this is what i like to call corporate america's dirty little secret. "the wall street journal" got the buzz going with a great series start. it started yesterday, following through today, pointing out the so-called 10351 plans. these are plans you put in place if you're going to sell shares over a specific period of time. >> we always talk about these. we have an executive on. why did you sell stock last week in this company? he'll say it was because we had a set plan in place. >> i do a story. i'd be working on some project.

somebody would say see the selling by this ceo? i'd go back and look and see there was regular selling. i would just sit back. but then i would talk to the guys who are really in the insider selling business. they'd always say, no, no, no, no, no. you got to look at these 10b-5 plans because they can be put in and pulled out at the whim of the executive. >> they can be manipulated. >> or what appears to be manipulated. that's what's wonderful ability this journal piece. two things it says i think we have to focus on. one you can set up a plan. but you don't have to at that point start selling the stock. there's no rule that says when you have to start selling the stock. it also says you can stop selling the stock at any time. at that point, to me, it makes a plan like this a mockery. if you say you want to sell a million dollars worth of stock, you should do it boom, boom, boom, boom, boom on a regular basis. no i havfs, ands or buts. if you know there's bad news but you've been selling it every

month, just routinely, why should you stop then? it's like dollar cost averaging the other way. >> i agree with herb. i think this should be more transparent. it's very opaque right now. they don't have to file -- >> they file -- they file a form 4 with the s.e.c. you have to go to fine print to see this was part of a 10b5 plan. >> you have a unique perspective because of the options market and unusual activity. >> sometimes that unusual activity is tipped off by exactly these types of things. it goes back to that transparency. as herb said, if it had to be d displayed that joe terranova was selling shares of vertus on a certain day and it's a regular sale he's prearranged, that's a different story than if he can just pull it at any given time. >> the s.e.c. allows this. right? there's nothing wrong with it. though you've got more voices now coming out and saying that this shouldn't be allowed, right? average investors are sitting at

home going what the hell's going on? they're trading on information i can't get my hands on? >> absolutely. the fact is they can do it at a whim it seems like. so much for what are considered preordained plans. they're not preordained. >> thanks. coming up, cigarettes and booze. we pour over the sin stocks g e givigiv giving investors a good buzz today. and trading strategies that will give you the most upside into gold market. "halftime" is back in two minutes. gecko (clearing throat) thank you, mr. speaker, uh, members of congress. in celebration of over 75 years of our government employees insurance company, or geico...as most of you know members it.congress. ...i propose savings for everyone! i'm talking hundreds here... and furthermore.. newscaster:breaking news. the gecko is demanding free pudding. and political parties that are actual parties!? with cake! and presents! ah, that was good. too bad nobody could hear me. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.

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that's me over there waving to everybody in the corner. today on "power lunch" disappointing numbers from some of the biggest names in retail. are consumers as ready to go shopping this season as we thought? we featured him on "how i made my millions." now the president is going to be there for a tour tomorrow. what a ceo, a toy ceo, plans to tell the president about jobs, the economy and the fiscal cliff. plus, the top tech trends coming in 2013 and how you can play them right now. find out on "power." now back to scott and more on "fast half." >> see you in 15 minutes. sin to win. jon najarian crunched the performance on the numbers of sin stocks. up big since the recession.

>> take a look at, for instance, cigarette stocks. starting with altria. going through phillip morris. smoke them if you've got them, folks. these are outstanding performances. up 123% for altria. 112% and 117% respectively for the other two cigarette stocks. that's not all. i mean, you know, bartender, i'll have another. take a look at the performance over the last four years of consolation brands. 131%. >> how many times did you say that last night? >> budweiser. that's what i was saying last night. 125%. and diageo 115%. i know where you're going with that i'll have another. as far as get away trades, priceline, this is one of those outstanding performers that even makes apple look sick. up 873% since '08. expedia up 752%. and if you need a getaway stock, scott, you also need a gun. a man with a briefcase can always steal more than a man with a gun.

ruger up 863%. smith & wesson 372%. >> i know you've been following ruger. guys, what about some of these stocks? whether it's the smokers or the drinkers or the shooters? >> why choose? guns, cigarettes, let's get going. >> sounds like a party. >> grab a drink, have a smoke. >> does the ruger dividend come with bullets? is that going to be actual cash? >> i think it's a thesis that goes beyond the developed economies. i think it goes into the emerging markets themselves. uk company. latin america, great company doing well. 52 week high today. >> murph, a trade? >> you have to be careful with the travel companies. expedia, pricelines. these things up 700%, 600%, you wouldn't want to chase those. gun stocks, there could be more room there. >> it's been a wild ride for gold. metal rebounding from yesterday's big selloff.

its biggest drop in a month. with the fiscal cliff looming, is there a play to be made? commodities ding dennis gartman of the gartman letter joins us on the fast line. good to have you on. >> always good to be here, judge. >> what are the implications of the fiscal cliff to gold? trying to figure out what even caused this $30 move we saw yesterday. >> two questions. i'm not sure the fiscal cliff is terribly important when it comes to the gold market. i think what's far more important is the advent of continued expansion of the reserves by the fed. by the bank of -- by the ecb. and, perhaps most importantly of all now with the upcoming election in japan where the likely successor to the prime minister, mr. abe, has made it abundantly clear he expects the next governor of the bank of japan to expand supply of japanese yen in an unlimited fashion. those are the things that are driving gold prices higher. i'm bullish of gold in yen terms. it's been working quite well. the second question, what happened yesterday, still open for debate. what was interesting was on

friday, you had a huge expansion of open interest. yesterday you had an actual -- almost a perfect decline by the same amount in open interest. it looks like somebody took a long position -- two things either happened. either a very large hedge fund took a large position and puked on it yesterday. or trying to game the system because of the amount of puts that were put in. there are a lot of people thinking it was a fat finger trade. i thought it was for a while. it doesn't appear to have been. it does appear to me that somebody was liquidating a large trade that they put on last week and got out. stocks got hit and a lot of people got hurt badly. >> dennis, i've heard you often talk about silver being an untradable commodity. do you think we are at the point when you talk about gold that the best advice that can be given to viewers is it's something that you invest in, in "x" percent of your portfolio and just stop trading it, it is just too volatile? >> i think that's very wise

counsel. you ought to hold 2% to 9%. something like 5% of what you own should be in gold. it might not be the ultimate -- maybe it is the pin ultimate hedge against everything else. but trading it is very, very difficult. i try to make a living at it and it is hard for me. i can't imagine the public trying to do it. if you're going to trade in metals, maybe stay away from silver. volatility is simply far too great. that should really be left to the pros. >> dennis, appreciate your insights. dennis gartman. talk to you again soon. what happens to the dollar if lawmakers can't prevent the u.s. from falling off the fiscal cliff? we'll get the worst case scenario when we come back.

welcome back. kbw declaring a special $2 a share dividend becoming the latest company in a growing list so far. 174 companies have announced special dividends in november according to s&p. that's a new record. who are some potential issuers on deck? >> goldman sachs back in september put out a note that i think really got this conversation going. the one name they mentioned on there that has not yet done the special dividend is mastercard. doc was talking about it before reaching new levels today. i think mastercard is a name

that you could focus on. >> when you own a stock and they announce a special dividend it is great but the problem with chasing them is once the thing goes "x" dividend, typically the price will adjust. it is not necessarily a great short term trade. i'd focus more on consistent dividend paying as opposed to special dividend. >> google's on my list. $50 billion in cash. at least one-third of that onshore. that's where i'd go. >> home depot. real quick at $6 billion in free cash flow generated this year. i think they can put some of that back in the form of a dividend. democrats and republicans taking shots at each other yet again as the fiscal cliff looms. how can you protect yourself if we nose dive off the cliff? what are we watching today, kathy? >> i think you have seen in the price action that all this yo-yoing with regard to the fiscal cliff is weighing on

anticipate tights. what i'm watching is the lack of reaction in dollar/yen. dollar/yen had a really nice run-up in november. i think it is stalling right now. there's probably some opportunity for to adjust as well. i think that's probably the next currency to roll over if the concerns exacerbate. >> what levels are you looking at? >> i'm looking to basically sell dollar/yen around current levels around 82 with a stop at 82.75. i want to have a closer target at 81.75 because the fis calf cliff is not necessarily very bearish for the u.s. dollar. in a further tart at 80. >> kathy, good to talk to you, as always. final trades just after this break. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.

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